A first look at July’s surge in tracking consumer attitudes to UK wines shows less, no more confidence in going out and shopping than in April. Why?
Is everything getting better? Or are they getting worse? Much is grounded in this fundamental theme of our COVID-19 era: the validity of many business plans, survival opportunities for the travel, entertainment and hospitality industries – and the direction of public order.
Because anyone who follows the media closely draws sensible conclusions about the direction of the economy and consumer sentiment from day to day in order to survive on a commercial network is a stupid task. Some good news can quickly be followed by a lot of bad news, which will upset future forecasters.
Another way to measure sentiment is to look at relationships over a longer period of time. Large follow-up studies are trying to do just that, and Wine Intelligence’s Vinitrac® Global is no exception. In early April, we examined attitudes of wine consumers in 14 major wine markets towards more common activities in life, such as their desire – if allowed again – to go out to eat, take vacations or take part in social events. Event; and in the short term, how much they would like to shop at an online grocery store and how they think about drinking more or less wine.
The results show that the middle of April, that is. At the height of Wave Block 1, consumers around the world were categorized into four identifiable groups based on their attitudes to life after blocking:
Halteri: Those who think of stopping all future social activities
Deducers: Those who cut their lifestyle and social life significantly after being blocked
Moderator: Those who expect some change in social life after the blockage, but mostly plan to return to their previous state
Hedonic: Those determined to increase outreach after a pandemic (and in some cases already transferable rules for doing so)
While there are differences in the sizes of each group by market, there is remarkable overall symmetry in the proportions we found. About half of the users are moderators, while the sarong and reducer together comprise 1 in 3. 15 to 20% of the remainder are hedonic. Based on this, we estimate that once the restrictions are lifted, the pre-blocking space will return to about 60% of its size (all hedonic will come out along with most moderators). Preliminary data for the UK suggests that this is a reasonable forecast for this market as it emerges from the blockade in July.
What could happen next Intrigued to see how our segment is performing, in July we again asked the same question and performed the same segmentation analysis on a specific market, first seeing the UK as our bell. Despite some grueling months and one of the world’s highest deaths, we hope that British wine drinkers are at least as, if not more gracious, when we ask their intentions again two weeks after shops, pubs and restaurants reopen.